“Innocent until proven guilty”……..

Are we at the point now where that has morphed into, “I hope he didn’t,” or, “I’m sure he did,” and both sentiments carry as much validity and weight as the initial belief? I’d sure as heck love to think not, but what possible defense could I offer up that would carry an ounce of weight?

Oh and before going any further, please spare me the “That taints your two World Series with the Sox!!!” emails. A larger load of crap I have yet to hear.

Because if you honestly think that in the last 10 years one team for even one season had NO PLAYERS using Steroids or HGH you’re kidding yourself. As horrifying and pathetic as it sounds, players cheated their way to a level playing field of a different sort. Please save the, “Oh but this guy only did it for one year,” and, “No one knows how long he was doing it.” Save that.

The only thing sadder than the continued “revelations” of new names and new drugs are the excuses following them. Female Estrogen? I didn’t know what I was taking? I had no idea it was steroids? Every one makes me appreciate Pettitte, Segui and the men that made their peace and moved on even more.

Do you honestly for one second think ANY player, ANY professional athlete who has been caught up in this allowed a cream to be rubbed, a needle to be stuck, or a pill to be taken and wasn’t aware that the substance was or was not a steroid? Really? I do believe one guy. I think J.C. Romero did buy an over-the-counter substance that contained something that got him in trouble. I could be completely hoodwinked but as far as I know he’s the only guy that’s actually done something to legally rectify the situation and clear his name.

I’ve never taken steroids, I’ve never taken HGH, and I am not saying that to clear my name or make a statement, I’m saying that because even though I did not, I’ve never drank a protein shake from my strength coach, I’ve never taken medication from a doctor or the team, I’ve never gotten an injection from a team doctor or otherwise that I didn’t ask and wasn’t told exactly what it was. I’m far from svelte or ripped, and never have been. I was never a fitness freak or gym rat — those are the guys that measured every milligram, count every tablet in their regimen. Yet somehow we’re hearing these same people talk about being struck momentarily stupid when West African bullfrog semen is found in their blood. “What? How’d that get there????” Their routines, from reps to nutrition are as mapped out as scouting reports. They eat a certain way, train a certain way, and they play a certain way. There is no ‘black hole’ or ‘hidden formula’ happening in these instances. So you get up at 5am? You eat at 6am? Thirty minutes of cardio, upper body, lower on alternate days, whirlpool for x minutes, maintain x calories of protein and carb intake? You do all that, and at some point you let someone stick a needle in your ass, or throw a ‘protein shake’ or rub a ‘crème’ on you, and for that 30 seconds to 5 minutes you have absolutely no thought, care or concern about the product? A step recognized as vital to strength gain, or recovery, a step to setup the acceleration of your recovery or magnification of gains from your hours of work and you just go dumb?

I heard the news about Manny and was asked for my response. “Not surprised” was all I could really muster. I got emails remarking “how does it feel to be right” or “that’s gotta feel good, huh?”

Nothing could be farther from the truth. Who wishes that on people? Why? I have no respect for the guy for a laundry list of reasons that have to do with actually playing the game and being a teammate, but further ruining the image of the game is certainly not what I’d call anything close to consolation. What goes around comes around for everyone.

More kids are let down today, more parents turn from athletes as their kids’ role models (which is NOT a bad thing) every time these stories hit the news. The sad part is you know somewhere there is someone in the media who’s made it their life’s mission to get those 103 other names on “The List,” and that’s going to find it’s way out. The only reason I’ll be relieved that it does will be that I’ll stop receiving “Your name is on that list, isn’t it?” emails.

For the past 19 years or so I’ve had suspicions, some stronger than others, but to sit here today and say I played on even one team that was totally clean would be denying reality I think. I’ve never personally seen a player inject, ingest, swallow HGH, or steroids but like every other player I played with that had his eyes open I saw the huge weight gains in one winter, I saw the hat size increase, I saw the acne in places a camel would be embarrassed to have it. I watched the player hit 20 more homers in one year than they ever had, then revert back, I saw the pitcher throwing 87-90 come to spring training throwing 95-97, I saw all of that. None of those are ‘no brainers’ — none — but they were hints, and when you get enough hints you can see the answer clearly if you are looking.

I played pretty much my entire career in the Steroid Era.

There, I said it. Not rocket science, not an earth shattering revelation, just an enormously disappointing recognition of the label that will accompany the era in which I was allowed to play this game.

I did so never taking Steroids, HGH, cow urine, horse feces, or West African bullfrog semen, and for that yeah, I am proud. Proud of something that really doesn’t deserve praise, does it? Not committing a crime is something to get lauded and applauded for? Are we really that bad off as a society that we’re looking for the ‘few, the proud,’ the non-felons?

The ONLY saving grace today was that I was mentally a million miles away from all this. I had the honor of visiting with the front line officers of the 4^th Infantry Division in Colorado Springs, Colorado. These incredible men and women are being deployed to Afghanistan in the coming weeks. A real dose of ‘hero’ and ‘courage’ and ‘honor’ to quell any ills from this crap.

So after all the BS, I was allowed to say thanks to true Heroes, true Warriors, true Americans, and it felt pretty damn good.

So stop making athletes your icons, they’re supremely gifted, extraordinarily talented human beings, period. After that they’re no different than you, not one bit. They endure the same hardships at home, divorce, drugs, domestic violence, DUI, and every other thing you can read about on page A1 of any newspaper. Don’t make the mistake of thinking the size of the paycheck is relevant to the core of the man. Don’t place more responsibility on them, or accountability, because life doesn’t work that way.

Relish in the Halladays, Rolens, Sabathias, Lowells, Counsells, Variteks, Garnetts, Jameses, Bruschis, Vrabels, the Jason Bays of the world. Relish in men of supreme character and tireless work ethic who respect the game and their teammates and suit up every day to leave it all on the field. If 100 more names come out I can still give you my word there are a lot more great men and phenomenal people in the game than not….

Then go home and raise your own damn kids with your own set of values, integrity and morals. Be accountable to them and responsible for them and stop blaming video games or the 25-year-old kid from the Dominican who can hit a baseball 455 feet but you don’t know and never will, for the ‘problems of today’s youth”. It starts and ends under your own roof. Your kids idolize the people you allow them to, and believe things you don’t refute or discuss, and that’s no one’s fault but your own.

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Curt Schilling on Dennis & Callahan

At the most recent event for a program called YouthCare my wife and I spoke publicly about our son’s battle with Asperger’s Syndrome, for the first time. Here is the text of my wife’s speech the other night.

I have given many speeches over the years.  This is one is by far  the hardest. It is one thing to speak from the heart about your own experiences and another to speak from the heart about one of your children.

When our third child was diagnosed with Aspergers Syndrome almost two years ago all I can say is that my heart was aching. A child that I had raised to that point like his siblings, I couldn’t understand how he could be so different.    I was in the doctors office when I heard the words ” On the spectrum of Autism” Aspergers.

For one brief second the puzzles pieces made sense and there was relief.  What followed was such a sense of loss, pain and guilt it’s hard to describe.

I remember for days thinking to myself “just write down” what I was feeling.  The emotions were so strong that I became numb.  I struggled so hard as a parent to reach Grant and I was now sure that I would never know how to communicate with him.

The school year was just beginning and I went in for his IUP meeting.  I was so overwhelmed I cried the entire time.  I didn’t know how to handle Grant and I was looking for anyone to tell me “Hey, no need to worry, we can help”.

I starting sitting up nights, scouring the internet, downloading anything I could find on Aspbergers. Digesting in small bits as it was all so overwhelming.

Some people read everything they can get their hands on, all I wanted was the comic book version. Which by the way I have never found.

That fall of 2004 we went on to win the World Series and I just tried to keep distracted.  I really wanted help but honestly I just wasn’t ready for it.  I tried to watch Grant and see what I could do .  I listened to the teachers and administrators give me tips and techniques to help Grant at school.

It wasn’t till after Christmas that year when I decided to take the schools advice and reach out for help. I was ready to accept this different life and the new adventures it would bring to us. I spoke to other parents who were always eager to share problem solving that worked for them.

One name that kept coming up in conversations was this wonderful camp called Youth Care.

We tried summer camp before his diagnosis and every day I would have a full report from my daughter on what Grant had done to make the councilors mad.  I was mortified and humiliated that he just couldn’t follow there rules.  I knew that I couldn’t go through another summer like that.  So I made the call to YOUTH CARE.  Grant and I went to the interview meeting.

I have to tell you that I was so nervous that he would act normal and they wouldn’t accept him.   Needless to say it took 30 seconds for them to agreed he was a fit. As he walked in he touched every single object in the room, never looked her in the eye, and couldn’t answer any questions due to being so distracted in a new room with so many new shiny things to look at, and touch!  Hooray we were in.

I really had no idea what YOUTH CARE had to offer as I had heard that kids and parents learn so many coping and life skills and this camp was second to none for kids like Grant.

I felt relief and empowered that I was making the first good decision for him.

The day of camp orientation arrived.  I listened as he met his councilors and watched as he interacted with the other kids in his group.  They explained to him the great things that he would be doing that summer and he was excited.  He counted down the “Sleeps”  until camp would start.

The first day arrived.  He was up early and checking to make sure he had everything he needed.  I pulled into the line and watched as each kid was greeted by his councilor.

When our turn came Grant jumped out of the car almost forgetting to give me a kiss, which he never forgets. The camp councilors were so warm and affectionate in greeting each child that morning, this was truly going to be a place Grant would be accepted, and welcomed.

He walked away and I started home.  I drove out of the campground and without warning tears were flowing down my face.  For the first time since this journey began I was crying tears of joy.  Grant was safe and most of all wanted.  He would be surrounded by people who would watch out for him, understand him and be patient with him.

As a mother that is all I wanted.  I learned strategies that would help both Grant and our family.  I was open to suggestions and eager to try the new things that we learned would work so well for Grant.   Grant had a wonderful summer.  A super summer camp experience.

Curt and I are so grateful that Youth Care exists and for all the wonderful people that work so hard to help our children.   What we hope to do  by sharing  our family story is to help even more families who do not have funds to this amazing opportunity to have that chance.

Take it from two parents who are walking this journey with our son.  If you have the means to give a child and his family a chance it is the biggest return on your investment that you will ever make.

Thank you and God Bless

Shonda and I are truly grateful to Scott McLeod the camp director and want anyone affected by this to reach out to the camp and any of the other services provided to see if there is help for you or your children. This is a daily battle that will never end. Much like most everything else I look at this in only one way.

Life often times gives us ‘choices’ when it really doesn’t. Our son has Aspergers, there is nothing we can do about that other than turn over every leaf, in trying to make sure we as parents provide every possible outlet and resource to him, and to us as parents, to make the world a place Grant can thrive and succeed in. Our son is brilliantly smart (as many children with Aspergers are) and way ahead of many of his peers in certain academic areas, but there are social issues and to many people those have far more potential to be harmful than anything else in a young childs life.

This is the opposite of a ‘why us’ or ‘poor us’ story, this is the first chapter of a story that will see us take on a charitable cause, and ask each and every one of you for help (whether that is time or money, I don’t care, both are needed) as we move down this path in our lives.

This city has never shied from helping Shonda and I in every charitable endeavor we’ve taken on and we are forever grateful to all of you for everything you’ve done.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me through this blog if you are looking for help, or offering it.

Thanks

Curt and Shonda Schilling

We’re getting close to Round 2. Here are the 7’s vs. 10’s in the ‘38 Pitchers Bracket Challenge’ (with bracketlogist Kirk Minihane offering the commentary):

Cy Young Region
7. Catfish Hunter vs. 10. Tommy John

It’s sort of become fashionable to knock Catfish as an all-timer over the past couple of years. And while he pitched for championship teams and really only had a couple of great seasons there is no doubt that he belongs on this list. Okay, I’ll buy that five 20-win seasons with the A’s and Yankees in the 1970s isn’t staggering. Bert Blyleven would have won 25 games a year with those teams. But Hunter was still a top pitcher, leading the league in WHIP twice as well as ERA in his 1974 Cy Young season. And how about 30 complete games in 1975? No pitcher has reached 25 complete games since (Tim Wakefield has 32 CG’s in his career). I count three seasons from Hunter that I would term “great” — 1972 (21 wins, 2.96 ERA), 1974 (25-12, 2.49 ERA, .986 WHIP) and 1975 (23-14, 2.58 ERA). Not enough to be among the top 25 pitchers of the last 50 years, but easily fits in the top 64. Tommy John is a medical marvel and did win 288 games, but I’m not sure he was ever one of the top five pitchers in baseball. He did win 20 games three times, but did so for some terrific Dodgers and Yankees teams in the late 70s-early 80s (the three teams that he won 20 games for (1977 Dodgers and 1979 and 1980 Yankees) averaged 97 wins a year). But he did stick around forever, pitching until he was 46. At his peak Hunter was a better pitcher, and by a fairly decent spread. Does 64 extra wins (over 11 seasons) give John an argument?

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Walter Johnson Bracket
7. Don Drysdale vs. 10. Orel Hershiser

I know people don’t want to hear this, but Drysdale was largely a product of where he pitched. At home in his career? 114-74 with a 2.53 ERA in 261 starts. On the road? 95-92 with a 3.41 ERA in 257 starts (this is all in a pitcher’s era, remember). It’s the Jim Rice argument. Can anyone who was average for HALF of his career really be viewed as an all-time great? This matchup is a tough one to call. Hershiser pitched in the same ballpark as Drysdale for the majority of his career. His splits are also significant (3.17 ERA at home in 256 games, 3.81 ERA in 254 road games), but not as glaring as Drysdale. Both have a Cy Young Award. Career records are pretty much a push (Hershiser 204-160, Drysdale 209-166). Of course Hershiser broke Drysdale’s shutout innings streak. Both guys were superb in the playoffs (2.95 ERA for Drysdale, 2.59 ERA for Hershiser). Pretty close to a coin flip, but here’s why I’d vote for Hershiser: His two best seasons (1985, 19-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 1988, 23-8 with a 2.26 ERA) are better than any season in Drysdale’s career. Throw in a slight postseason edge and you’ve got an upset.

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Lefty Grove Bracket
7. Johan Santana vs. 10. Dwight Gooden

And the battle to be the second-best pitcher in Mets history is pretty much down to these two, right? Santana is in the middle of his prime, and I fully expect another two or three Cy Young Awards before his career is done. In career adjusted ERA+, only Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson are ahead of Santana. He’s also top 10 all time in Ks per nine innings (9.3, fifth) and winning percentage (.681, eighth). He is easily the strongest of the seven seeds and is, in reality, a lot closer to a four or five. Today Gooden is remembered as potential wasted, but if you look past that and just focus on his numbers he had a nice career. In the Non-Pedro department I would count Gooden’s 1985 season as the best in my lifetime (24-4, 1.53 ERA, 16 complete games, eight shutouts and 268 Ks). That was as a 20-year-old, and followed a 1984 season that may be the best ever produced by a rookie pitcher (17-9, 2.60 ERA and 276 Ks in 218.0 innings). If you had asked me to guess after those two seasons how many career wins Gooden would finish with I would have gone with about 330 or so. Well, he didn’t get to 200 (he ended up with 194). But he won 19 games in 1990, 18 in 1988 and 17 in 1986. He was a victim of his own early greatness (and the drugs, of course). Probably he was one of the top 10-15 pitchers in the majors from 1986-1991, but that wasn’t nearly enough for Mets fans. I’m not sure there is a comparison that fits today. Tom Brady was Super Bowl MVP (not really, but he won it) in his first year as a starter and led the league in TDs in his second. If he has five or six seasons with 17 TDs and 12 picks you’d be pretty close.

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• Luis Tiant
• Ron Guidry

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But don’t act like idiots. One of the perks of playing for the Red Sox, or the Yankees for that matter, is home field advantage. Home field advantage is ALL about the fans and the environment.

Don’t act like idiots, don’t throw stuff on the field, don’t be stupid. Be a Sox fan, have class, act like you’ve been there before, act like winners.

DON’T reach over the fence on a ball down the line when it’s hit by a RED SOX player!!!

Don’t reach over the fence to catch a ball in the air when it’s hit by a YANKEE player!!!

Keep enforcing that thing you’ve always had, make Fenway a nightmare for visiting players. Boston fans have some of the smartest sign making fans around, get them out there. Remind players who spurned you, that you won’t forget, but don’t be idiots about it. Remind the Yankees why this is a horrible place to be a visiting player, and at the same time remind your home town team why they can’t be beat here.

Boo the ever living hell out of the opponents, make it a hellish weekend, but do it with intelligence, class, dignity and style, it’s funner that way.

If you can rag the crap out of a player without an F bomb or using ‘your mother’, you’ve got something, otherwise you’re carbon copies of the gang that sits behind the dugout in Yankee Stadium because that appears to be all they ever had for ammo…

We’re back with more from our Pitchers Bracket Challenge, voting on the best pitchers of the post World War II Era. Comments are once again brought to you by Bracketologist Kirk Minihane:

Cy Young Region

6. Jim Kaat vs. 11. Vida Blue

Kaat won at least 10 games in 15 straight seasons (1962-76) and won 20 three times, including a league-best 25 in 1966. 283 wins and 16 Gold Gloves, but Kaat seems largely forgotten today. Maybe it’s because he stuck around too long at the end of his career (he was a long reliever for his last five years). Blue, of course, is best known for his remarkable 1972 season (24 wins, 1.82 ERA, 301 Ks) that landed him both the CY Young and MVP. The truth is that he had a pretty solid career, finishing in the top 10 in ERA six times and strikeouts seven times. His win totals from 1973-1980? 20, 17, 22, 18, 14, 18, 14 and 14. If you look at the prime of their careers Blue was a slightly better pitcher than Kaat. I guess the question is how much value do you place on the eight or nine average seasons Kaat tacked on.

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Lefty Grove Region

6. Mike Mussina vs. 11. Mel Stottlemyre

Teacher vs. pupil. To me, Mussina is a Hall of Famer. Forget 300 wins as a standard, in the five-man rotation era 250 wins is the new 300. Mussina finished up with 270, and his career .638 won/loss mark is 38th all time. He never won the CY Young, but finished in the top five six times. (And just to show you how caught up Cy Young voters can get when it comes to wins, look at 2002. Clemens won it, he finished 20-3. Mussina finished fifth, his record was 17-11. ERA? Clemens 3.51, Mussina 3.15. Innings pitched? Clemens 220.1, Mussina 228.0. Walks? Clemens 72, Mussina 42. Complete games? Clemens zero, Mussina four. Shutouts? Clemens zero, Mussina three. First Place Cy Young votes? Clemens 21, Mussina zero. Shameful.)  And how about 11 top tens in ERA for the Moose? Final Four sleeper. Stottlemyre pitched on some terrible Yankees teams in his short (11 year) career. A shame, because he was a terrific pitcher, retiring after the 1974 season with a 2.97 career ERA. Three 20-win seasons, twice led the league in complete games. Nine really good seasons isn’t enough to get past Mussina, however.

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Walter Johnson Region

6. Curt Schilling vs. 11. Roy Halladay

I’m not sure how to handle this one, so I’ll just present this in defense of Schilling:
Here are the pitchers in Major League history with at least 200 wins, 3,100 strikeouts and a winning percentage of .590
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Tom Seaver
Bob Gibson
Pedro Martinez
Curt Schilling

The other seven guys are slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers, right (not taking in the Misremember Factor)? Throw in the postseason stuff (11-2, 2.23 ERA) and it’s impossible to doubt Schilling’s credentials as an all-timer. If we do this again in 10 years I wouldn’t be surprised if Halladay was a top-six seed. Four top five Cy Young finishes (with a win in 2003) and two 20-win seasons (and a 19-win season). And his .668 career winning percentage (13th all-time) is even more impressive when you consider that he has never pitched for a playoff team. Halladay did not really begin his career until he was 25, so he’s not going to finish with monster numbers, but he could get to 220 wins or so (he’s 32 years old and has 133 career wins). Tough first rounder for Schilling but he should move on.

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Christy Mathewson Region

6. Jack Morris vs. 11. Dave Stieb

There is a case for an upset here. Morris had the benefit of pitching for some great teams, which makes it a lot easier to gain a reputation as a “winner”. Stieb was stuck with some lousy Toronto teams for the first four or five years of his career (though they improved greatly in the mid 1980s) and had some seasons that were ignored simply because his won-loss record wasn’t eye-catching. Take 1983. Morris wins 20 games with a 3.34 ERA and finishes third in the Cy Young voting. Stieb wins  17 games (and loses 12) with a 3.04 ERA and doesn’t receive a single Cy Young vote. Career seasons with an ERA 3.25 or under? Morris one, Stieb seven. Morris was more durable (finished with 254 wins in 18 seasons vs. 176 in 16 seasons for Stieb) and is the author of the best big-game performance of the last half-century. But I think Stieb was a better pitcher.

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He is and always will be one of the all time greats. In my 10 years in Phildelphia and 13 years elsewhere Harry was the only member of the media any team I’ve ever been around, accepted as a true member of the team.

For the 10 years I was in Philadelphia Harry was the only member of the media ever allowed to ride on the players bus. He was in the truest sense of the meaning, one of us. He was as close, if not closer, to some members of the team than other teammates.

In addition to the professional accolades he was one of my all time favorite people. I had the privilege and honor of sharing some great and personal memories with Harry throughout my time in Philadelphia.

If you were to put a Mount Rushmore of Philadelphia sports up, Harry would have to be one of the four faces on that mountain.

Personally speaking I can honestly say that hearing Harry’s voice as the ‘call’ on some of my professional accomplishments is an all time memory and incredible honor I’ll be forever grateful for.

Harry you will be greatly missed as someone who never “swung and missed! Struck him right on outta there”

God Bless and Rest in Peace

That would be the name of my fantasy team by the way….

Was slotted first, ten team league, snake draft…

Avg/R/HR/RBI/SB for offense, W/S/K/ERA/WHIP for pitchers

1) (1)Hanley Ramirez SS This scoring system, this player? Other than Reyes scores across the board at this position as well or better than anyone else

2 (20)Brian McCann C Another guy that gives a positional edge over 90+% of the league

3 (21)Jon Papelbon RP What’s not to like?

4 (40)Felix Hernandez SP I think this is the year it all comes together. Polished 4 pitch guy

5 (41)Kevin Youkilis 1B The homers were no fluke. 41st pick nets me a 4 category guy…

6 (60)Matt Kemp OF Didn’t know a ton about him until the research started, then surprised he was still there…

7 (61)Brad Lidge RP Lidge/Papelbon? Oh my…

8 (80)Ichiro OF With the offense already in place is going to help tons in 3 categories….

9 (81)Chris Carpenter SP I believe he’s fixed (and if he is he’s a 1st or 2nd rounder), 1st outing backs that up…

10 (100) Chipper Jones 3B I think one of the steals of the draft. Too many people think he’s past being good, I’m not one of them

11 (101)Andre Either OF Hate having 2 guys in the same lineup, but both have potential to boost multiple categories

12 (120)Joba Chamberlain P Going to put up good to great K/ERA/WHIP and possibly wins as well

13 (121)Jermaine Dye OF Needed a huge assist in the HR department and hoping he helps me there

14 (140)Heath Bell RP another closer, could be a sick bullpen

15 (141)Chris Young SP Wins will suffer, but great ball park, will give me WHIP, ERA and some K’s

16 (160)Erik Bedard SP Could be a HUGE steal if he’s healthy

17 (161)Clayton Kershaw SP Took a flier. Stuff is unquestionable

18 (180)Howie Kendrick 2B needed best multi-category guy I could find at 2B, almost went with Aviles but used personal experience to make this pick…

19 (181)Shin-Soo Choo OF could be another huge steal if he gets off on a good note and stays consistent

20 (200)Todd Helton 1B Personal memory killed me here. In addition to being the last hitter I ever faced, I just can’t see him not being an awesome offensive player (so awesome I moved him for Adam Lind 30 minutes after the draft)

21 (201) JJ Putz RP nice filler for the pen and the occasional save along with great WHIP seemed appealing (until I moved him after the draft for Grant Balfour)

Players I wanted and missed by a pick Greinke, Oswalt, Capps, Bonifacio, . Players I had on list but didn’t take at the end, Werth, Burrell, Verlander, Hoffman.

I receive daily quotes from athletes all around the sports world through a pro-athlete website service. Some of them are very good. The best ones are usually the most simple. Today’s was a particularly good one.

The most rewarding things you do in life are often the ones that look like they cannot be done.~ Arnold Palmer

Off of that someone at 38 Studios sent me one from a book on Teddy Roosevelt that I thought was not only spot on, but pretty powerful.

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

Things that I absolutely guarantee for the 2009 Red Sox.

Terry Francona will manage the personnel to their maximum effectiveness, regardless of what any second-guessing couch potatoes want to think or know. Tito knows more than you about his players, and always will.

The best managers in the game aren’t the men who “X” and “O” better than everyone, they’re the men who manage their people the best. Tito is as good as anyone I’ve ever been around at that. While he may suck at Cribbage, he can manage people. He may be a bit off-kilter since this is his first season as a ML manager without me on his team, but I’ll cut him some slack…..

First the divisional prediction. Cop-out time. I will make the same claim I made last season. The winner of the AL East will be between NY, Boston and Tampa. Whichever team has the fewest DL days of the opening day starting rotation’s five guys and closer will win the East.

One exception to the above rule is this. I think of the three teams that are legitimate contenders (I would add Toronto as a factor but even having Butter on the bench as a General is not enough to overcome the big 3 in my opinion), only the Red Sox could manage a big injury to the staff and not get buried. Not that they will, but I think they could.

The East has been a war of attrition for years and this year people are going to take Tampa for real as a player in this fight. The same folks who last year spent the whole season saying “this month is it,” “they can’t keep it up,” “they’re ready to go down” about Tampa are the same folks this spring saying “they’ll come back to the pack” or “they’ll come down to earth.”

Problem is those comments were made with no logic behind them. Tampa won this division last year with not one player having anything close to a career year. They did it with their ace on the DL for part of the season. They did it with no 40 HR guy, no batting title contender. They did it because Joe Maddon can manage his people, and he got his younger players to understand that winning games is far cooler than being a star. You can have both. Now add to the mix Gabe Kapler, someone who will have a profound impact on superstar young players, a healthy Scott Kazmir, a more seasoned James Shields, Matt Garza and others and I don’t see them ‘fading.’ I think it’s going to be a challenge for sure, but they’ll hold their own in my opinion.

The Yankees? Well in addition to opening what many will come to realize is the most kick-ass new stadium on the planet, they spent about $14.5 trillion in the off season to add more studs and horses. That the formula refused to work in the last eight years didn’t stop them from continuing it. The difference now is they are mixing in some young homegrown studs at the ML level who are impact guys.

Joba Chamberlain has all the makings of being a true top of the rotation guy, or the next Mariano. His numbers and stuff don’t lie, he’s the real deal and I love the makeup I’ve seen so far.

CC, well, he’s CC. That means a guy who will scream for the ball every five days if not every four, want to be on the mound in the 9th and be pissed at less than perfection. What’s not to love? That’s an ace, that’s what you HAVE to have at the top of your rotation.

Now add Tex to the mix and once again it’s a lineup to worry about. If I am not mistaken the new ballpark dimensions mirror the old, which means LHH are going to continue enjoying hitting there. Missing A-Rod will not help them early, no matter what you think, but starting the season without that media BS in the clubhouse every day should be some sort of bonus.

The bigger piece coming into play for them now is the top end of their prospect list. Austin Jackson appears to be a five-tool guy everyone is excited about and supposedly isn’t that far off. People got complacent or just totally missed the fact that having Bernie Williams out there for a decade was an insane luxury. That CF area is enormous ground to cover and having someone out there that brings some pop at the plate will be a huge lift for them. Melancon, Brackman and McAllister are all potential big upside arms. Melancon is being mentioned as Mariano’s heir apparent and that’s not a bad thing for either guy. Meaning one guy is still far from done, but this kid supposedly has the tools and makeup to be the next one. I still think Chamberlain ends up in that spot. Brackman is the wild card. At 6′10″ and 270 pounds you are talking massive potential with massive consistency issues. Moving that much mass, under control, consistently, is incredibly hard to do and teach. If they do, and he progresses, you are talking about a right-handed Randy Johnson if he can pan out. That’s ace, top-of-the-rotation stuff that comes along every 20 years. Anytime you hear ‘middle of the rotation’ mentioned in a prospects accolades it means three things.

1) We may never hear his name again
2) He could be an ace
3) Not one of his pitches wows you.

The reason that never bothers me is they continue to do this to kids in their late teens and early twenties, before velocity gain and physical growth has stopped. Many kids getting these labels are in growth spurts and are trying to adjust to new bodies, both in height and weight, as well as learning how to get guys out as the McAllister kid is.

Jesus Montero is listed as a catcher, but with his offensive ability and his size, he’ll switch positions.

One thing to watch out for in the next two years: if Boston doesn’t get that catcher of the future, and Minnesota doesn’t re-sign Joe Mauer, he’s going to go off the charts after the 2010 season as a free agent when the Sox and Yankees will be at the front of the line.

So New York needs to stay healthy, get 30 or so from Burnett and Sabathia, 25-30 from Chamberlain and Wang becomes as good as any #3 in baseball, right alongside Dice or Lester. The Yankee defense, if it’s not solid, could prove to be a huge issue for them this year as far as Wang is concerned. He’s won consistently with a below average defense and he won’t suddenly start striking guys out. I expect his numbers to remain the same, or maybe improve outside W/L. He is a guy that could have across-the-board improvement in all categories but W/L if he doesn’t get consistent defense.

If they get that many starts from their rotation they are going to be very very good.

Boston, and yes there may be some bias here but it’s because I know them and I understand how they are approaching things, is the favorite for one reason. They won the wild card last year, were within nine outs of a World Series, and never had their ace. Josh had a tough year last year. He was far more hurt in the playoffs than anyone knew. You put him out there healthy, which he is, with Jon Lester, Dice, Wake, Penny/Smoltz/Masterson, and you can’t help but feel good.

The top three pitchers have a legitimate shot at finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. It would not surprise me if two things happened I don’t think anyone is expecting this year:

1) Jon Lester is better than he was last year.
2) Dice is as good, if not better, than he was last year.

The Lester progression to me is natural. Given his makeup, his stuff, and the Farrell factor if he stays healthy there is no reason his numbers won’t continue to improve over the next few years. Add in the life experience (which cannot be underestimated imo) and you have a perennial Cy candidate.

Dice is just smart. He ‘grew’ last year and progressed and the W/L total, while surprising given the IP, was not a fluke. There are pitchers with marginal stuff who can throw out the occasional W/L % like he did last year, and then there are pitchers with good stuff who know how to make pitches in big spots. Dice is the latter. He knows how to execute when he’s in a bind and that means he gives up far fewer runs than you might expect. If he can improve his command and mindset early in counts, he can move into lofty company.

After those three you figure the combination of Wake, Smoltz, Penny, Masterson, Buchholz needs to make 72 starts. Can they do that and win 45 of them? Absolutely.

If Justin masters getting ahead and beating LHH he’s looking at a long and prosperous career as a starter in the big leagues. When your feature pitch is a sinker with more tail than sink, left-handed hitters can be a huge issue (reason being the ‘tail’ sees the ball move more to the barrel of a LHH’s bat than happens with sink, when the ball has dominating downward movement; Kevin Brown and Brandon Webb have massive sink). Few guys can do that and master the inside part of the plate to LHH. The key for Justin is that it’s something identified already and being addressed. Believe it or not, identifying the problem has been the most missed step in the process in the past. Even so, identifying it is one thing, but properly addressing how to ‘fix it’ never seems to get put in the mix.

You do that, imo, with command of the inner half of the plate to LHH through a cutter/FB mix. Greg Maddux was a master at this. He threw a sinker and a cutter to BOTH sides. If you know what side of the plate I am throwing to that can be an advantage. But if I can throw two pitches to that side of the plate — one that moves TOWARDS you and the other moving AWAY from you — it’s almost to my advantage that you ‘guess’ right as long as I am throwing the ‘other’ pitch. Add his pitching IQ and knowledge of hitters to the mix and you get 350 some odd wins and 100% of the HOF ballot. Justin will need to, again imo, be a guy that learns hitters more than some guys. He’ll need to learn LHH’s tendencies and create an ebb and flow that keeps LHH guessing and uncomfortable. If he can do that he’s going to win and win a lot.

Brad Penny remains the potentially biggest bargain of the year. I’ve known Brad since early in his Florida days and he’s a fantastic kid. Unfortunately, and fortunately, for him he’s got a high-maintenance body. Speaking as someone with experience in that department he’s got to keep on top of that and it appears he knows that and is doing that exact thing. If he’s healthy and pitches like he can, with Tek, Farrell and this bullpen, he could be a 15-20 game winner. That’s a lot of ifs, but certainly not out of the question. If he is in fact healthy then he immediately becomes the best #4 or 5 in the game and the Sox could win 110.

Smoltz, damn. Another “if” but I’ve heard nothing to think he won’t be healthy. If that is the case then things get even brighter. I bet you any amount of money, if you asked every manager in the game what rotation they would NOT want in a best of 5, or 7, it would be a healthy Sox rotation. Two of the best big-game pitchers in baseball (Smoltz and Josh), along with Dice and Lester? I’ll match that group with anyone all time in October.

That’s another huge if. October is a loooong way off. As a fan though you have to feel good knowing that the training staff, led by Paul Lessard, along with Tito and John, will manage their guys and the innings in the best possible manner to see that this staff arrives in October as healthy as possible.

I don’t even need to go into depth on the bullpen. Another “if,” but if they are healthy they present the one thing every opponent dreads. The ’seven-inning game’. In the late 80’s and early 90’s it was the Reds. Mid 90’s it was the Yankees with Rivera and Wetteland. A few years ago you had the Angels with Rodriguez and Percival.

Managers manage different, offenses play different. You know on nights when everyone’s available that not having a lead after seven pretty much means you lose. It’s not a “fait accompli” but you know going in….

This bullpen not only has that potential with Saito, Paps, Okie, but you have multiple arms able to fill both spots. Not just any arms either, but power arms. This is where I see the Sox having a huge edge given the coaching. You won’t have a “pitch Scott Proctor until his arm falls off” scenario here. They will be able to mix and match on almost every night and not burn any one guy out. That’s just huge, even more so in the East.

The offense? Let’s put it this way. Manny’s gone and there’s only one Manny. At the plate there is no comparable player in the game when he wants to play. Having said that, this offense is going to score runs and wear out pitchers. One of the keys will be Jacoby and his progression. On base he changes everything about the game for the hitter, pitcher and defense. Not many players can say that.

The Yankees have two players you could legitimately see as top 10 MVP candidates. The Rays? Not sure they have one beyond Pena right now. Longoria certainly could be that guy, Upton as well, but if you were betting and using track record there is nothing in the numbers that says Petey, Youk and David couldn’t be as well. If David is healthy, which it appears he is, he’s going to see his protection come back. No matter how the lineup shakes out Papi is the ‘don’t let him beat you’ guy, but he’s also surrounded by four guys who can beat you just as well: Petey, Youk, Bay and Drew. Don’t discount a healthy Mike Lowell either. The lineup is just so damn deep that other teams are going to have a hard time winning a series in which they don’t run out a No. 1 or 2.

The Red Sox lineup, like the Yankees, just crushes mediocre pitching. Not only that but the series in which you start your 4 or 5 in game 1, or 1 and 2, can get away from you fast because there are many games that these lineups are in your pen in the 3rd inning. I’ve watched many managers in the past five years lose all three games of a series in the first five innings of game 1 by mismanaging the bullpen.

What people miss is not the immediate effects, which often times are obvious, but the lingering ones. You use your pen for six innings in game 1, three in game 2 and three or four in game 3, and that’s 12 of your 27 innings being thrown by your pen. You arrive at the ‘by availability’ day when you have at most two or three guys available and the starter craps the bed again. That first game of the previous series can take you out of games for a week if a manager mismanages the bullpen.

No one wants to be considered ’strong’ in middle relief. It’s a calling card for teams that suck because middle relief is something you want to use 1-2 times a week tops. It’s the spot many teams park their 11th or 12th arm, or the young developing kid. Teams with payrolls like NY and Boston manage to park very talented, somewhat expensive veterans or young, up-and-coming studs in that roll. Their staff never misses a beat and combined with these offenses they end up turning three or four games a year every other team loses into wins.

One of the mandates of the Epstein era was revamping and recreating a truly deep minor league system. Is there any question as of today as to whether that’s happened or not? You’ve got a stable of arms that are primed and close to ready to make a difference in the big leagues and they are catching up on the position player pool as well.

I never thought having stacked prospects in the position player area was a major concern simply because having tons of arms means you have the ultimate bargaining chip in any trade.

Take a poll of GMs around the game and I would bet you’d see the ratio 2-1 or higher as to ‘untouchable pitching prospects’ vs. position prospects.

How many teams could create a package of talent that would garner a front-line catcher with one or two minor league pitchers and maybe a position player? Not many.

So there you have it. Another long winded post and another opinion…..

My call is the Sox win 105 games this year, the Division as well. No post season predictions yet.

Oh and I also think the Cy will go to a member of this staff: Beckett, Lester or Paps.

Off to the No. 5 seeds vs. the No. 12 seeds. Bracketologist Kirk Minihane will be subbing in for me again with the commentary. But first, here are the winners from the 4’s vs. 13’s:

Fergie Jenkins (82 percent) over Frank Viola (18 percent)

Gaylord Perry (94 percent) over Milt Pappas (6 percent)

Tom Glavine (97 percent) over Larry Jackson (3 percent)

Juan Marichal (91 percent) over Mike Cuellar (9 percent)’

Now, the next round:

Cy Young Region

5. Early Wynn vs. 12. Roy Oswalt

300 wins, five 20-win seasons and a Cy Young winner in 1959, Wynn also finished in the AL top 10 in complete games 14 times. So why only a five seed? His career ERA was 3.54, not significantly better than the average league ERA for his career (3.77). Compare that with Oswalt, who owns a 3.13 ERA against an average league ERA of 4.36. Tough to pick a guy with just eight seasons  over a 300-game winner, but there is an argument to be made for Oswalt. Five top-five Cy Young finishes, a .688 winning percentage and a pair of 20-win seasons. In career Adjusted ERA+ Oswalt ranks 16th. Wynn? Tied for 422nd.

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Walter Johnson Region

5. Robin Roberts vs. 12. Don Newcombe

Roberts won 20 games in this third season in the majors (1950). He would win 20 in each of the next five seasons, including 28 in 1952. Never won 20 again after 1955, he was actually little more than an average pitcher over the last half of his career. Still finished with 286 wins, though. Newcombe only pitched 10 seasons (missed two of his prime years to the military, also spent time in the Negro Leagues), but won 20 games in three of them. His 1956 season was his best, as he won 27 games and picked up the MVP and Cy Young Award. Newcombe was breaking down in his early 30s, so even if we give him credit for those missed seasons I doubt he would have matched Roberts’ career totals.

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Lefty Grove Region

5. Bert Blyleven vs. 12. Jimmy Key

Blyleven should be a Hall of Famer. Just bad luck, pitched for some terrible teams. Put it this way: There are are eight pitchers that rank among the top 20 in wins, strikeouts and shutouts since 1900. Seven (Don Sutton, Tom Seaver, Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins and Walter Johnson) are in the Hall of Fame. The eighth is Blyleven. Ten seasons with an ERA of 3.00 or less. Would’ve won 320+ games if he had pitched for good teams his whole career. Final Four sleeper. Key was a really consistent pitcher. Save for 1995 (he missed most of the season with an injury) he won between 12-17 games in each season from 1985 to 1997. Two second-place Cy Young finishes and a 3.15 ERA in 14 postseason appearances.

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Christy Mathewson Region

5. Phil Niekro vs. 12. Andy Pettitte

Niekro is remembered for the knuckleball, of course, but he was a terrific pitcher for some lousy Atlanta teams. Take 1978. Niekro throws 334.3 innings (22 complete games) with a 2.88 ERA. His record? 19-18 (the team won 69 games that season). He was also stuck in a hitters’ park for the great majority of his career (career home ERA was 3.50, road 3.20). He still managed to post 13 seasons with at least 15 wins. I’m not sure we’d be talking about Pettitte if he had pitched in Kansas City for his entire career. Still, he’s been a 15-18 game winner almost every season (two 20-win years). Not sure what to make of his best season. 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA for the Astros in 2005 (league ERA was 4.23). Was HGH a factor? That’s where this stuff gets tricky.

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